![]() ![]() Again, this basic strategy would have carried little risk.Īll night, the Falcons had played aggressively-and it worked. Very little good could come from a pass at this point in the game-an incomplete pass is bad, a sack is bad, and a holding penalty is bad-especially when you're already averaging 5.8 yards per rush. Over the course of the game, the Falcons were gaining an above-average 5.8 yards per rush (the league average is around 4.3 yards per play). The second basic strategy mistake the Falcons made was not rushing the football when they had a comfortable lead. But, like in blackjack, it can be hard to keep focus on time-tested statistical strategies under stress. A coach could input possession, down, distance, and score and come up with one best decision for the team at that moment. Computers do the hard work: They take all the possible situations and calculate the probability of each outcome. If you analyze the thousands of football games played in the last 10 years, you can devise a set of rules that almost always lead to a win. It’s more complex than blackjack, of course, but there is a basic strategy for football coaching. That’s what brought the Falcons down tonight. ![]() Why? Because humans are subject to cognitive bias. Still, even if they know the right thing to do, very few people actually play perfect basic strategy. The average blackjack player loses about three percent of the money they put on the table-but if you play basic strategy perfectly, you reduce the casino’s edge to about 0.5 percent. He founded and sold tenXer, an HR anlytics company, to Twitter, where Ma is currently the Senior Director of Analytics.Įvery decision in blackjack can be dictated by simple math: There’s always a right and wrong answer. Jeff Ma was the leader of the MIT blackjack team that inspired the book Bringing Down the House and the movie 21. ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |